BR Analysis. Hard times for borrowers in Romania: rising inflation, interest rates could boost insolvencies, NPLs

The business environment is changing quickly in Romania, as the age of cheap credit is gone, and rising inflation and interest rates erode the profits of companies and the purchasing power of indebted households. By Sorin Melenciuc On March 31, Victor, a 30-year-old middle-class Romanian living in Bucharest, received a short message from his bank informing him that his monthly mortgage repayments would be RON 1,053 (around EUR 226) in the next quarter. “On March 31, 2018, ROBOR 3M was 2.08 percent,” the bank said in a message sent to Victor’s brand new smartphone. Three months later, the message was significantly different. “On June 30, 2018, ROBOR 3M was 3.15 percent. Your total monthly payment for your Prima Casa mortgage loan is: RON 1,182,” the equivalent of EUR 254, the bank said. In just three months, Victor’s monthly payment had increased by 12 percent (or RON 129), and this is a good illustration of how complicated concepts like money market rates – ROBOR in Romania – influence everyday life in such a short period of time. But the bad news is far from over. In July, the ROBOR 3-month, the main indicator that sets the interest rates for RON currency… Read full this story

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