Cincinnati election results

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The country will go to the polls next week on 12 December to elect a new Parliament, in the fourth national vote in five years. The election polls so far show the Conservative Party having a healthy lead, but with a host of electoral pacts and local issues at play, the election is still seen to be unpredictable.  Much will depend on how certain marginal seats will swing in the general election, with the Conservatives targeting Brexit constituencies in the North and Midlands, the Lib Dems looking to take Remain seats in the south of England and London, and the SNP likely to re-claim much of Scotland. Meanwhile, the Labour Party are on the defensive in many seats - facing a Tory threat in their... … [Read more...] about The marginal seats that could decide the 2019 general election result

The long-awaited postmortem into what wrong with the opinion polls ahead of last year’s general election is published on Tuesday, and it points the finger at pollsters’ failure to reach enough Conservative voters. Patrick Sturgis, a professor of research methodology at Southampton University, who headed a team of nine experts that undertook an independent review for the British Polling Council, said “the emerging upshot is that the companies are going to have to be more imaginative and proactive in making contact with – and giving additional weight to – those sorts of respondents that they failed to reach in adequate numbers in 2015.” Emerging findings across the industry point to a series of key groups who were underrepresented in the polling: The oldest voters: the over-70s, who broke heavily for the Tories, were not reflected in YouGov’s online internet panels. Young non-voters: the under-30s generally lean left, but very often fail to … [Read more...] about General election opinion poll failure down to not reaching Tory voters

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Jeremy Corbyn has claimed the local election results indicated voters want MPs to “get a deal done” on Brexit, after his party suffered losses. Labour had hoped the results would signal it was poised to take power at a general election, with the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, suggesting on Thursday night it might gain 400 seats. But, with the results all in on Friday evening, the party had suffered a net loss of more than 80 seats compared with its 2015 figures. Asked about the results, in which the Conservatives suffered much bigger losses, Corbyn told ITV: “I think it means there’s a huge impetus on every MP, and they’ve all got that message, whether they themselves are leave or remain – or the people across the country – that an arrangement has to be made, a deal has to be done, parliament has to resolve this issue. I think that is very, very clear.” His comments echoed remarks from McDonnell, who had earlier claimed the message … [Read more...] about Corbyn says local elections show voters want deal done on Brexit